Use MACE to Find Out if Mobile is Right for Your Campaign.

Not the spice, but an easy equation.

Many are stuck when it comes to mobile. They’re confused on whether mobile tools fit within their operations and communications mix, and how they will impact registered voters.

It’s a matter of simple math for campaigns answer this question. The Mobile Affect on Campaign Efficiency (MACE) percentage shows how many registered voters will be impacted by mobile tools.

Step 1: Collect Your District’s Census Data

This information is readily available online or from the Secretary of State website.

Step 2: Combine the %s of Residents Ages 15-34 (Y)

While 15-17 year-olds can’t vote, we’re looking for general data trends. This age range encompasses the millennial generation — the heaviest consumers of mobile messaging, data and apps as a generation. They’ve also never owned a landline and largely ignore email outside of work.

Step 3: Add Up the Population %s of Communities of Color (C)

Persons of color are 40-60% more likely to have a mobile phone as their only piece of personal technology. This audience is more likely to use a feature phone and be on a prepaid plan, and use their mobile device to do more than the general population.

Step 4: Add the % of Households with Kids under the Age of 18 (K)

Children drive mobile usage, whether they are direct consumers or indirect beneficiaries. Families consume more minutes and data, on average, than an equal number of individuals. And children between the ages of 13-18 consume the most of any comparable age group.

Step 5: Combine %s & Multiply by the Urban Population % (U)

Population density plays a significant role in the efficacy of mobile tools. The more rural the population is, the less the availability of mobile data access, content providers and other factors.

Step 6: Add or Deduct the CPVI from the Combined % (CPVI)

Factor the Cook PVI score as a percentage. If the district has a CPVI of D+19 or R+12, add 19% or subtract 12% respectively. The stronger the opponent’s party, the less effective mobile campaigns will be. Mobile has a greatest impact on GOTV efforts when a district also has a high Democratic score. With it, mobile can become one of the most cost-effective and labor efficient tools to drive voters to the polls.

Here’s the formula to calculate a MACE percentage:

U(Y+C+K)+CPVI=MACE

Let’s test by calculating MACE for Minnesota’s 5^th and 7^th US Congressional Districts, one encompasses Minneapolis and some inner-ring suburbs and the other the largely rural Northwest corner of Minnesota.

5^th US Congressional District:

1.00(0.35+0.28+0.23)+0.23 = 109% of Registered Voters

It’s no surprise that this densely populated district is the youngest and most racially diverse in the Minnesota, and a progressive stronghold. With MACE that exceeds registered voters, there’s ample room to rally new voters and focus on GOTV in the Fall — a strategy that the Ellison Campaign is following. Mobile tools can have a dramatic impact on their efforts.

7^th US Congressional District:

0.34(0.25+0.06+0.27)-0.05 = 15% of Registered Voters

This sparsely populated congressional district seems to be the exact opposite in a demographic sense. The area is dramatically older, the least racially diverse in the state and leans to the GOP. Unless it’s an exceptionally close race, mobile tools will have small impact on the electorate.

As with any calculation, MACE is not perfect. Many question the efficacy of the Cook PVI. But this percentage will show campaigns the potential impact of mobile tools on registered voters.